Sugarcane expansion and farmland prices in São Paulo State, Brazil

Abstract

Background: Brazil is the world's largest sugarcane producer, and its production is concentrated in south-central and northeast regions, particularly in the state of São Paulo. The land use change, principally from the increasing sugarcane production, may reflect in the farmland prices. The aim of this study is to evaluate the extent to which agricultural land prices in São Paulo are determined by variations in cultivation and prices of three products that represent a significant share of agriculture in the state: sugarcane, soy and corn, in a low-inflation environment. Methods: Analysis is based on data from the Rural Development Offices (EDR) from 1997 to 2013. A simple panel data model is constructed with land price as the dependent variable, subdivided, according to the definition of the São Paulo State Institute of Agricultural Economics, into first- and second-class croplands. Cultivation area, unit price of the products, and lease value are explanatory variables, according to each crop. Inflation and the overall production value of São Paulo's farming production, excluding the production values of corn, soy and sugarcane, also serve as explanatory variables. Results: The results show that in São Paulo, although part of the land price variation can be explained by the variables associated with their productive use, the impact of inflation indicates that land's function in storing value contributes significantly to land prices. Conclusions: The most prominent conclusion is that expansion in sugarcane cultivation has led to higher farmland prices in the state of São Paulo.