PEMILIHAN PARAMETER OPTIMUM MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DENGAN METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH TITIK PANAS DI KALIMANTAN TIMUR

Abstract

The exponential smoothing method is one method that can be used to predict time series data by smoothing the data. In this study, the method used was exponential smoothing with one smoothing parameter from Brown. The data used is the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan from January 2019 to September 2019. The purpose of this study is to obtain the optimum smoothing parameter values  for exponential smoothing from the results of the optimization process using the golden section method to minimize the MAPE value, to obtain forecasting results for each method in exponential smoothing for the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan from October to December 2019, and obtain a good exponential smoothing method to predict data on the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan. From this analysis, the researchers chose the methods used were DES and TES. The optimum smoothing parameter obtained at DES was 0,558430 and TES was 0,376352. The results of forecasting the number of hotspots obtained in DES in October were 2.142, November was 2.707, and December was 3.271 with a MAPE value of 95%. The TES method forecasting results were obtained in October as many as 2.193, November as much as 2.975, and December as many as 3.852  with a MAPE value of 108%. Based on the comparison of the MAPE values in the two methods, the DES method is better than the TES for calculating the predicted value of the number of hotspots in East Kalimantan, although the two methods are not yet suitable for handling this case.