Armed conflict and child vaccination in Nigeria: the deprioritised preventive care

Abstract

This study investigates how armed conflict influenced paediatric vaccination uptake in Nigeria. Combining Demographic and Health Survey data with detailed conflict event information, we examine the relationship between the intensity of reported conflicts near children’s residences and their vaccination probabilities. Our findings reveal that a 1 SD increase in conflict intensity reduced vaccination rates by 0.73–1.80percentage points (between 2.10% and 4.60% of the mean). The results suggest that beyond disrupting healthcare infrastructure, conflict may affect vaccination rates through demand-side effects, where heightened security risks lead parents to deprioritise preventative health investments. These findings contribute to understanding vaccination challenges in conflict zones and inform targeted immunisation strategies.