Alzheimer's disease Archimedes condition-event simulator: Development and validation

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Abstract

Introduction: Several advances have been made in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) modeling, however, there remains a need for a simulator that represents the full scope of disease progression and can be used to study new disease-modifying treatments for early-stage and even prodromal AD. Methods: We developed AD Archimedes condition-event simulator, a patient-level simulator with a focus on simulating the effects of early interventions through changes in biomarkers of AD. The simulator incorporates interconnected predictive equations derived from longitudinal data sets. Results: The results of external validations on AD Archimedes condition-event simulator showed that it provides reasonable estimates once compared to literature results on transition to dementia AD, institutionalization, and mortality. A case study comparing a disease-modifying treatment and a symptomatic treatment also showcases the benefits of early treatment. Discussion: The AD Archimedes condition-event simulator is designed to perform economic evaluation on various interventions through close tracking of disease progression and the related clinical outcomes.

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Kansal, A. R., Tafazzoli, A., Ishak, K. J., & Krotneva, S. (2018). Alzheimer’s disease Archimedes condition-event simulator: Development and validation. Alzheimer’s and Dementia: Translational Research and Clinical Interventions, 4, 76–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trci.2018.01.001

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