On Projecting the Distribution of Private Households by Size

Abstract

The paper introduces a general approach to distributing households by size, which is based\ron recurrent procedure of estimating conditional proportions of households of a given size\ramong households with the same or larger size. Based on formal study and on empirical\revidence, models and methods are proposed for deriving the distribution of households\rfrom their average size. The methods are tested and compared using census data and\rprojections of Austrian and EU households. The approach proposed is also developed to\rdistribute households both by size and by sociodemographic\rcharacteristics of the\rhousehold head. Methods proposed are consistent and robust and may find a wide range of\rapplications in household modelling and projecting, in enriching household projections by\rheadship rates and other extrapolative methods, and also in studying the economic,\recological and other implications of household dynamics.