Evaluation of mortality attributed to air pollution in the three most populated cities in Serbia

Abstract

The subject of this study was a mid-term evaluation of cardiovascular, respiratory and total non-accidental mortalities attributed to exposure to PM10, O3, NO2 and SO2 in the cities of Belgrade, Novi Sad and Nis, representing about 25% of the population of Serbia. The analysis was performed using AirQ+ modelling, by linking annual baseline mortality rates and daily pollutant exposure levels in 2011–2015 based on the cause-specific concentration–response functions. Estimated shares of annual mortality attributed to these pollutants, thanks to harmonizing of assessment methodologies, may stand next to and be compared with results obtained in previously conducted studies. The obtained premature deaths estimated within 95% confidence interval (in parentheses) and attributed to PM10, O3, NO2 and SO2 exposure were 2013 (1344–2677), 1411 (685–2086), 831 (555–1107) and 443 (333–530), respectively. Total non-accidental mortalities due to O3 and NO2 exposure were in the range of findings for other regions, while mortalities attributed to PM10 were higher. It was also found that cardiovascular mortality caused by these four pollutants was higher than respiratory mortality. Based on our results, efficient implementation of abatement strategies that would reduce PM10, O3 and SO2 concentrations to daily air quality limit values set by the World Health Organization could respectively prevent, in the three cities together, about 233 (156–310), 40 (19–59) and 71 (53–85) premature deaths per year.