Extreme weather should be defined according to impacts on climate-vulnerable communities

Abstract

Climate change and related extreme weather events (EWEs) are expected to widen social and health inequalities. Yet, EWE thresholds and associated adaptation strategies do not centre experiences of vulnerable communities. This study explored the impacts of temperature- and precipitation-based EWEs for women in informal settlements, whether meteorological definitions of these EWEs capture impacts and whether self-reported impacts can be used to develop impact-based thresholds. We combined meteorological data with longitudinal monthly survey data collected from September 2022 through February 2023 from a probability sample of 800 women in two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. Findings suggest that women experience health, economic, environmental, emotional, social and property impacts; thresholds of EWEs currently used for early action and preparedness are not capturing impacts; and, while self-reported impact data may provide an excellent first step in the process of (re)defining thresholds for some EWEs (for example, precipitation-based), more research and discussions with communities are needed.