Investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and macroeconomic variables on unemployment among university graduates in Indonesia: Regression and Fs-QCA approaches

Abstract

The educated unemployment rate among university graduates (EUUG) in Indonesia has risen steadily, reaching 34.6% during the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2021), attributed to economic challenges and a national recession. This research aims to analyze the impact of Covid-19 and various macroeconomic variables on educated unemployment across 34 Indonesian provinces. Using panel data regression and Fs-QCA methods, the study found that the pandemic and macroeconomic factors significantly influence educated unemployment. The best configuration for high educated unemployment during the pandemic includes factors such as GDP per capita, inflation, Provincial minimum wage (PMW), investment, and government spending, observed in provinces such as Riau, South Sulawesi, DKI Jakarta, and South Sumatra.