Determinants of Basketball Match Outcome Based on Game-related Statistics: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

This study aimed to systematically review the current scientific literature on game-related statistics (GRS) that better discriminate between basketball winning and losing teams, and to identify the magnitude of the difference of the most frequently cited GRS between winning and losing teams via meta-analysis. A systematic search of the databases Web of Science, Scopus, SPORTDiscus, PubMed, Science Direct, Latindex, Scholar Google, and Scielo was performed. Keywords addressed discriminant analysis, game-related statistics, discriminant factors, determinant factors, game outcome, match analysis, winning and losing, and basketball. Data from 20 out of 533 articles were eligible to be extracted. Structural Coefficients (SC) values were considered relevant for analysis when ≥0.32. Results indicated that defensive rebounds and assists were classified as good (SC ≥ 0.46) or very good (SC ≥ 0.56) discriminant factors. Both were the most frequently GRS cited as discriminant factors, regardless of location, phase of the competition, or opponent’s level. Based on these indicators, eight studies were included for meta-analysis. Meta-analyses showed that winning teams have at least six more defensive rebounds (95% CI = 4.22-7.99; p < 0.0001) and around four more assists than losing teams (95% CI = 3.14-4.50; p < 0.0001). Coaches should emphasize defensive rebounding and assisting drills in their practice planning to improve the likelihood of winning games.