River temperature forecasting: case study for Little Southwest Miramichi River (New Brunswick, Canada)

Abstract

River temperature models play an increasingly important role in the management of fisheries and aquatic resources. Among river temperature models, forecasting models remain relatively unused compared to water temperature simulation models. However, water temperature forecasting is extremely important for in-season management of fisheries, especially when short-term forecasts (a few days) are required. In this study, forecast and simulation models were applied to the Little Southwest Miramichi River (New Brunswick, Canada), where water temperatures can regularly exceed 25–29°C during summer, necessitating associated fisheries closures. Second- and third-order autoregressive models (AR2, AR3) were calibrated and validated using air temperature as the exogenous variable to predict minimum, mean and maximum daily water temperatures. These models were then used to predict river temperatures in forecast mode (1-, 2- and 3-day forecasts using real-time data) and in simulation mode (using only air temperature as input). The results showed that the models performed better when used to forecast rather than simulate water temperatures. The AR3 model slightly outperformed the AR2 in the forecasting mode, with root mean square errors (RMSE) generally between 0.87°C and 1.58°C. However, in the simulation mode, the AR2 slightly outperformed the AR3 model (1.25°C < RMSE < 1.90°C). One-day forecast models performed the best (RMSE ~ 1°C) and model performance decreased as time lag increased (RMSE close to 1.5°C after 3 days). The study showed that marked improvement in the modelling can be accomplished using forecasting models compared to water temperature simulations, especially for short-term forecasts. EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang.