Modeling the Tripartite Coupling Dynamics of Electricity–Carbon–Renewable Certificate Markets: A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

To ensure a smooth transition towards peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, one key strategy is to promote a low-carbon transition in the energy sector by facilitating the coordinated development of the electricity market, carbon market, and other markets. Currently, China’s national carbon market primarily focuses on the power generation industry. High-energy-consuming industries such as the steel industry not only participate in the electricity market but also play a significant role in China’s future carbon market. Despite existing research on market mechanisms, there remains a significant research gap in understanding how steel enterprises adjust their trading behaviors to optimize costs in multi-market coupling contexts. This study employs a system dynamics approach to model the trading interconnection between electricity trading (ET), carbon emission trading (CET), and tradable green certificates (TGC). Within this multi-market system, thermal power enterprises and renewable generators serve as suppliers of carbon allowances and green certificates, respectively, while steel companies must meet both carbon emission constraints and renewable energy consumption obligations. The results show that companies can reduce future market transaction costs by increasing the proportion of medium to long-term electricity contracts and the purchase ratio of green electricity. Additionally, a lower proportion of free quotas leads to increased costs in the carbon market transactions in later stages. Therefore, it is beneficial for steel companies to conduct cost analyses of their participation in multivariate market transactions in the long run and adapt to market changes in advance and formulate rational market trading strategies.