China’s Waste Import Ban and US Solid Waste Management: Effects of the Loss of a Waste Haven

Abstract

China banned imports of several types of postconsumer recyclable waste beginning in 2018. We examine the effects of this ban on municipal solid waste management in the United States, using affected exports before the ban to measure differential exposure. We find that the ban increased the amount of waste disposed in landfills but had at most a small effect on solid waste combustion. Exposure to the ban is associated with declines in postconsumer recycling activity. Over 20% of the displaced scrap paper was diverted to other importing countries, whereas plastic exports to other countries fell, perhaps because of the ban’s broader impact on recycling. The results are consistent with the waste havens hypothesis: restricting trade in postconsumer waste shifted environmental damage to the exporting country.