APACHE III outcome prediction in patients admitted to the intensive care unit with sepsis associated acute lung injury

Abstract

Background and objective Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score has been widely used for prediction of clinical outcomes in mixed critically ill patients. However, it has not been validated in patients with sepsis-associated acute lung injury (ALI). The aim of the study was to explore the calibration and predictive value of APACHE III in patients with sepsis-associated ALI. Method The study was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of rosuvastatin in sepsis-associated ALI (Statins for Acutely Injured Lungs from Sepsis, SAILS). The study population was sepsis-related ALI patients. The primary outcome of the current study was the same as in the original trial, 60-day in-hospital mortality, defined as death before hospital discharge, censored 60 days after enrollment. Discrimination of APACHE III was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) with its 95% CI. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic was used to assess the calibration of APACHE III. The Brier score was reported to represent the overall performance of APACHE III in predicting outcome. Main results A total of 745 patients were included in the study, including 540 survivors and 205 non-survivors. Non-survivors were significantly older than survivors (59.71±16.17 vs 52.00±15.92 years, p<0.001). The primary causes of ALI were also different between survivors and non-survivors (p = 0.017). Survivors were more likely to have the cause of sepsis than non-survivors (21.2% vs. 15.1%). APACHE III score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (106.72±27.30 vs. 88.42±26.86; p<0.001). Discrimination of APACHE III to predict mortality in ALI patients was moderate with an AUC of 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.64-0.73). Conclusion this study for the first time validated the discrimination of APACHE III in sepsis associated ALI patients. The result shows that APACHE III score has moderate predictive value for inhospital mortality among adults with sepsis-associated acute lung injury.