PROJECTED LAND USE LAND COVER DYNAMICS AND TOURISM SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE SELECTED KAZAKHSTAN AREA

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of land use land cover (LULC) dynamics and their influence on tourism development potential in the Konaev city (south eastern Kazakhstan) region, based on multi-temporal analysis of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for 2017, 2024, and a projected scenario for 2030. The findings reveal substantial landscape transformation driven by urban expansion and agricultural intensification – evidenced by a sharp decline in grasslands (from 53% to 35%) and wetlands (from 0.7% to 0.2%), and a significant increase in croplands (from 1% to 14%) and built-up areas (from 10% to 18%). A spatially weighted tourism suitability analysis identified three strategic development directions: ecotourism (39.2%), aquatic tourism (36.7%), and urban-cultural tourism (20.1%). While the region demonstrates high tourism potential, the ongoing degradation of natural ecosystems presents critical challenges to sustainability. These trends emphasize the urgent need for integrated land-use planning that aligns tourism growth with ecosystem preservation. The study concludes that sustainable tourism in the Konaev city requires a science-informed, multisectoral approach balancing environmental stewardship with infrastructure development and service quality enhancement. Such a framework can ensure resilient, diversified tourism growth and contribute meaningfully to regional economic and ecological sustainability.