Machine learning to predict the progression of bone mass loss associated with personal characteristics and a metabolic syndrome scoring index

Abstract

A relationship exists between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and human bone health; however, whether the combination of demographic, lifestyle, and socioeconomic factors that are associated with MetS development also simultaneously affects bone density remains unclear. Using a machine learning approach, the current study aimed to estimate the usefulness of predicting bone mass loss using these potentially related factors. The present study included a sample of 23,497 adults who routinely visited a health screening center at a large health center at least once during each of three 3-year stages (i.e., 2006–2008, 2009–2011, and 2012–2014). The demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle characteristics, body mass index (BMI), and MetS scoring index recorded during the first 3-year stage were used to predict the subsequent occurrence of osteopenia using a non-concurrence design. A concurrent prediction was also performed using the features recorded from the same 3-year stage as the predicted outcome. Machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were applied to build predictive models using a unique feature set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1 score were used to evaluate the predictive performances of the models. The XGBoost model presented the best predictive performance among the non-concurrence models. This study suggests that the ensemble learning model with a MetS severity score can be used to predict the progression of osteopenia. The inclusion of an individual’s features into a predictive model over time is suggested for future studies.