Monte Carlo Simulations Demonstrate Algorithmic Interventions Over Time Reduce Hospitalisation in Patients With Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder

Abstract

Non-adherence with pharmacologic treatment is associated with increased rates of relapse and rehospitalisation among patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. To improve treatment response, remission, and recovery, research efforts are still needed to elucidate how to effectively map patient’s response to medication treatment including both therapeutic and adverse effects, compliance, and satisfaction in the prodromal phase of illness (ie, the time period in between direct clinical consultation and relapse). The Actionable Intime Insights (AI 2 ) application draws information from Australian Medicare administrative claims records in real time when compliance with treatment does not meet best practice guidelines for managing chronic severe mental illness. Subsequently, the AI 2 application alerts clinicians and patients when patients do not adhere to guidelines for treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the AI 2 application on the risk of hospitalisation among simulated patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Monte Carlo simulation methodology was used to estimate the impact of the AI 2 intervention on the probability of hospitalisation over a 2-year period. Results indicated that when the AI 2 algorithmic intervention had an efficacy level of (>0.6), over 80% of actioned alerts were contributing to reduced hospitalisation risk among the simulated patients. Such findings indicate the potential utility of the AI 2 application should replication studies validate its methodologic and ecological rigour in real-world settings.