Bases sociais do PT e do bolsonarismo

Abstract

What are the socioeconomic bases of support for the Workers’ Party (PT) and for Bolsonaro? Despite the widespread view that the 2018 and 2022 elections represented both an expression and a reinforcement of recent political polarization in the country—echoing a broader global phenomenon of the rise of the radical right—the literature offers mixed findings on this issue, in addition to presenting methodological limitations and important gaps, particularly regarding the changes that occurred between the two elections. Using models based on electoral and educational data disaggregated at the polling-station level, as well as information on the municipalities in which they are located, I show that Bolsonaro’s support base is composed primarily of high-status voters living in affluent areas. Although some shifts occurred in 2022, this pattern remained largely unchanged, highlighting the importance of the long-term social contours of Brazilian party-electoral competition.