Comparative and Predictive Analysis of Electrical Consumption during Pre- and Pandemic Periods: Case Study for Romanian Universities

Abstract

The pandemic period was caused by COVID-19 and it has been an unprecedented event in the last 100 years of human history. Regarding universities, major changes have occurred both in the online method of education as well as in the patterns of their electrical consumption, respective of both students’ and teachers’ residential electrical consumption. The focus of this research is to conduct and assess a comparative analysis of universities’ electrical consumption during the pre- and pandemic periods. Polynomial regression is used to model the electrical consumption of four Romanian universities during the period 2019–2021. Also, this study proposes a method for predicting the electrical consumption of universities in three months of 2021, compared to that of the same months in 2020. The data analysis shows that the electrical consumption had decreased between 20.6% and 36.29% in the pandemic period of 2020 compared to that of 2019. Additionally, this study evaluates the electrical consumption of universities due to their use of computers, which represents an important percentage of the total consumption; this was between 11.28% and 60.5% in the pre-pandemic year 2019, but this was substantially reduced in 2020, to be between 57.13% and 77.27%. Based on the data that has been provided by students and teachers, the calculated values show that the electrical residential consumption increased by about 20 kWh per month and per computer unit during the pandemic.