Application of Empirical Approaches for Fast Landslide Hazard Management: The Case Study of Theilly (Italy)

Abstract

Landslide hazard management usually requires time-consuming campaigns of data acquisition, elaboration, and modeling. However, in the post-emergency phase management, time is a factor, and simpler but faster methods of analysis are needed to support decisions even in the short-term. This paper analyzes the Theilly landslide (Western Italian Alps), which was recently affected by a series of reactivations. While some instrumental campaigns are being carried out to support the design of protection measures, simple tools are also needed to assess the hazard of future reactivations and to evaluate the possibility of damming the torrent at the footslope. Therefore, state-of-the-art empirical methods were used and customized for the specific case study: a set of intensity–duration rainfall thresholds depicting increasing hazard levels was defined to monitor and forecast possible reactivations, while a methodology based on hydro-morphometric indices was applied to the case of study, to assess the possible evolution scenarios (landslide that does not dam the river, formation of a stable dam, formation of an unstable dam), based on the landslide volume. The proposed empirical methodologies have the advantage of requiring only ready-available input data and quick elaborations, thus allowing the rapid set up of tools that could be used for hazard management.