A Method of Analysis Integrating HCR and ETA Modeling for Determining Risks Associated with Inadequate Flight Separation Events

Abstract

This paper proposes an event tree to analyze the risk of inadequate flight separation based on the HCR model. We explore how the consequences of such an event depend on factors such as abilities and mental states of pilots and air traffic controllers, and the efficiency of human-machine interaction. We also discuss possible practical measures to control risks in an effort to improve civil aviation safety.