Conicity index and waist-to-hip ratio are superior obesity indices in predicting 10-year cardiovascular risk among men and women

Abstract

Background Central obesity has been recognized as a main risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. Three popular central obesity indices are waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio; abdominal volume index and conicity index are 2 recent novel obesity indices. The main aim of this study is to determine the performance of these indices to best predict 10-year CV events. Hypothesis Some obesity indices can be used to predict cardiovascular risk. Methods In total, 3199 subjects (age range, 40-79 years) were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and Framingham risk score tools were used to estimate the 10-year CV events. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to determine the optimal discriminator(s) among the central obesity measures in the estimation of a 10-year risk of CV events ≥7.5%, ≥10%, and ≥20% separately. Results Among the 5 central obesity indices, conicity index showed the most discriminatory power in estimation of a 10-year CV risk. In men, based on the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association tool, the areas under the curve (AUCs) were from 0.671 to 0.682 based on the 3 above thresholds, whereas with the Framingham tool, AUCs were from 0.651 to 0.659. In women, all AUCs were >0.7. Our results also showed WHR to be an almost comparable discriminator of CV disease risk in the Iranian study population. Conclusion Conicity index and WHR had a more discriminatory accuracy for 10-year CV events compared with the other obesity indices.