Epidemiological trends and survival of oropharyngeal cancer in a high HPV-prevalent area: A Danish population-based study from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

Denmark, alongside other Scandinavian countries, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, has high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV). Our oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) database includes all diagnosed cases in Eastern Denmark during a period of more than two decades. We investigated the incidence, survival, and recurrence of patients with OPSCC with combined p16- and HPV testing covering a consecutive 21-year period. Age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) per 100,000, survival models, and Cox proportional-hazards model were employed. Two thousand eight hundred thirty-four patients were included (57.5% HPV positive (HPV+)/p16 positive (p16+), 33.7% HPV negative (HPV-)/p16 negative (p16−), 4% HPV+/p16−, and 4.8% HPV−/p16+). The AAIR for all patients increased from 1.8 to 5.1 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2020 linked to an increasing AAIR of HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs from 0.9 to 3.5 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2020. The AAIR for the HPV−/p16− OPSCCs decreased from 1.6 to 1.4 from 2017 to 2020. HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs had a higher 5-year overall survival (OS) of 79.2% compared to the other subgroups (HPV+/p16− OS: 50.4%; HPV−/p16+ OS: 49.4%; HPV−/p16− OS: 35.1%). The AAIR of the total OPSCC group increased from year 2000 to 2020, driven by a rise in the HPV+/p16+ group. A decreasing incidence rate was observed for the HPV−/p16− OPSCCs from 2017 to 2020. The OS for HPV+/p16+ OPSCCs was significantly higher compared to all other HPV/p16 subgroups. Therefore, we recommend testing for combined HPV and p16 status in patients with OPSCC when selecting patients for clinical trials, especially in case of de-escalating/escalating.