Simulation of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trends in Tokyo considering vaccinations, virus mutations, government policies and PCR tests

Abstract

The eighth wave of COVID-19 infection in the Tokyo area has brought daily confirmed cases to a new higher level. This paper aims to explain the previous seven epidemic waves and forecast the eighth epidemic trend of the area using agent-based modeling and extended SEIR denotation. Four key considerations are investigated in this research, that are: 1. Vaccination, 2. Virus mutations, 3. Government policies and 4. PCR tests. Our study finds that the confirmed cases in the previous seven epidemic waves were only the tip of the iceberg. Using data prior to December 1 2022, the eighth wave is expected to hover high in December 2022 and January 2023. Our research pioneers in the simulation of antibody titer declination on an individual level level. Comparing the simulated results, we find that the arrival of new epidemic waves are related to the decline in the number of antibody possessors, especially during the sixth and the seventh epidemic waves. Our simulation also suggests that faced with low severe and low death rates, PCR tests would not make much difference to reduce overall infections. In this case, maintaining PCR tests to a low level helps to reduce both social cost and public anxiety. However, if faced with the opposite case, PCR tests should be adjusted to a higher level to detect early infections. Such level of PCR tests should be compatible with available medical resources.