China in central Asia*: Local perceptions from future elites

Abstract

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seems to have exhibited its goodwill by aiming to integrate its neighbors peacefully and cooperatively into joint economic prosperity; nevertheless, there are various concerns about the implications of China’s mounting influence in Central Asia. This article attempts to compare the results of several small-scale surveys conducted among university students in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, so as to get a glimpse of local perceptions in Central Asia on the growing Chinese influence in their countries. Our primary survey analysis shows that Kazakhstani respondents tend to believe China has the biggest influence in Central Asia, while Kyrgyzstani respondents believe that Russia outperforms China in status in the region. However, both Kyrgyzstani and Kazakhstani respondents believe that Russia’s influence will largely decline and be overtaken by China in the next decade. Although our respondents have some awareness of China’s presence in their countries and an understanding of China’s influence, they do not consider the Chinese development model a suitable one for their country. China’s much advocated Belt and Road Initiative has not seemed to reach the radar of the young respondents included in this study.