Applying the Transplantation Framework to JNIM’s Expansion in the Sahara-Sahel: A Criminological Lens

Abstract

This article analyses the expansion of Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) across the Sahara-Sahel, using the transplantation framework from criminology to explore how the group relocated. By focussing on this case study, the article offers an examination of how JNIM strategically embedded itself in a new environment. The study incorporates qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with NATO analysts and military personnel involved in counterterrorism in the Sahara-Sahel, data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project and a review of open-source literature. The findings show that JNIM’s expansion was driven by push factors, including military pressure in northern Mali following the French-led Operation Serval in 2013 and competition with other illicit groups. Pull factors encompassed weak state presence, ethnic tensions between Fulani herders and Dogon farmers, economic opportunities in illicit gold mining and smuggling routes and the region’s strategic location. JNIM adapted organisationally by integrating local leaders, intermarrying, providing services, and establishing Sharia governance structures. However, their expansion faced constraints from local self-defence militias and increased military operations by Malian and international forces. The transplantation framework reveals JNIM’s strategic organisational adaptations and environmental exploitation, offering insights beyond traditional models of ideological diffusion or networks.