Reducing Data Uncertainties: Fuzzy Real-Time Safety Level Methodology for Socio-Technical Systems

Abstract

This paper presents the fuzzy real-time safety level (Fuzzy RealTSL) methodology. It aims to address the data uncertainties resulting from a lack of sensors in complex sociotechnical systems and reduce the need for the determination of their safety level in real-time during their operation. To achieve this, the methodology utilizes: (1) safety constraints from STPA (systems theoretic process analysis) analysis and EWaSAP (early-warning-signs analysis process), (2) fuzzy logic as the mathematical backbone to identify the degree of confidence about the occurrence of unsafe system states, (3) a modified centroid point and spread ordering to enable ordering sequences of unsafe system states that can lead to accidents according to how detrimental they are to the system safety. The RealTSL methodology is presented through its step-by-step application to the panel alignment system of a solar park utilizing rotating solar arrays. This paper aims to open a new perspective on the STAMP literature for discussions of uncertainties from a lack of information about the system’s state and to make it easier to measure its safety level. Knowing the safety level of a system in real-time is crucial for the systems in question as it enables proactive risk management and enhances decision-making by providing immediate insights into potential hazards, thus safeguarding against accidents.