Efficacy of compartmentalization in controlling an adenovirus type 54 keratoconjunctivitis outbreak on Oki Island, Japan

Abstract

Purpose: To analyze the epidemiologic characteristics of an outbreak of human adenovirus type 54 (HAdV-54) on Oki Island, Shimane Prefecture, Japan, in 2017 and to assess the effectiveness of a compartmentalization method in controlling the incidence and spread. Study design: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: The infection was diagnosed in 136 individuals, and typing was confirmed by PCR and direct sequencing. The epidemiologic characteristics of the disease including the infection rate, incubation period, and basic reproductive number (R0), ie, number of cases directly infected by an infectious patient during the course of the disease, were investigated. The effectiveness of compartmentalization for infection control was determined by simulating the outbreak using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Results: The majority of the HAdV-54-infected individuals were the children of 3 nursery schools (A, B, and C) and their parents on Oki Island. The infection rates in the 3 schools were 13.2%, 16.9%, and 17.2%, respectively. The one class of school B without the index case was initially compartmentalized, and the infection rate in this compartment was 0%. The incubation period was calculated to be 9.3 ± 3.5 days, and the disease duration, 13.0 ± 5.4 days. The R0 was 1.43. Using these parameters, a SEIR model was constructed. The SEIR model well predicted the daily incidence of infection and indicated that the compartmentalization method provides effective reduction in the incidence of the infection, with much earlier control. Conclusions: The compartmentalization method is effective to control HAdV-54 outbreaks.