Portfolio optimization of power plants by using renewable energy in Iran

Abstract

Lack of investment in the electricity sector has created a huge bottleneck in the continuous flow of energy in the market, and this will create many problems for the sustainable growth and development of modern society. The main reason for this lack of investment is the investment risk in the electricity sector. One way to reduce portfolio risk is to diversify it. This study applies the concept of portfolio optimization to demonstrate the potential for greater use of renewable energy, which reduces the risk of investing in the electricity sector. Besides, it shows that investing in renewable energies can offset the risk associated with the total input costs. These costs stem from the volatility of associated prices, including fossil fuel, capital costs, maintenance, operation and environmental costs. This case study shows that Iran can theoretically supply ~33% of its electricity demand from renewable energy sources compared to its current 15% share. This case study confirms this finding and predicts that Iran, while reducing the risk of investing in electricity supply, can achieve a renewable energy supply of ~9% with an average increase in supply costs. Sensitivity analysis further shows that with a 10% change in input cost factors, the percentage of renewable energy supply is only partially affected, but basket costs change according to the scenario of 5-32%. Finally, suggestions are made that minimize risk rather than cost, which will bring about an increase in renewable energy supply.