An integrated population model and sensitivity assessment for a data-poor population of green sturgeon

Abstract

Conservation planning requires understanding population sizes and trajectories. As with many imperiled species, green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) census data are limited, making it difficult to contextualize current threats and promote quantitative conservation goals. We combined spawning census, growth, and demographic data for the southern population of green sturgeon to build a population size and trajectory estimate. We generated a distribution of population size estimates and trajectories reflecting uncertainty from multiple sources. We then propagate these estimates through a demographic model to assess the potential impact of fishing bycatch. Our model suggests the population is below the recovery goal of 3000 adults. The most probable current total population estimate (including juveniles) is approximately 10 000 fish (5300–18 400 95% high density interval (HDI)), with 2400 adults (2197–2624 95% HDI). Simulated fishing bycatch pressure on the adults and subadults reduced abundance by a median value of 0.4% per year, which could be an impediment to recovery. Fisheries bycatch is one of many threats this population faces; this integrated framework may be used to assess how other threats may affect this population.