Will the real security foresight expert please stand up?

Abstract

In its critical comparative overview of foresight methods and how they are used by different futures institutes in Europe, North America, and their partners, the text argues that while many futures institutes claim to provide foresight expertise, few actually provide the tools needed by policy makers to help prepare for security risks. It identifies two trademarks of genuine security foresight experts: 1.) They will differentiate between trends and futures research 2.) Their methods will have met with success in providing early warning signals. These methods often come from the fields of statistical analysis and computer simulation, but can be enriched by human judgment which tests modeling results in the real world.