Statistical and empirical relationships between tornado intensity and both topography and land cover using rapid-scan radar observations and a GIS

Abstract

This study presents an investigation into relationships among topographic elevation, surface land cover, and tornado intensity using rapid scan, mobile Doppler radar observations of four tornadoes from the U.S. Central Plains. High spatiotemporal resolution observations of tornadic vortex signatures from the radar's lowest elevation angle data (in most cases ranging from;100 to 350 m above ground level) are coupled with digital elevation model (DEM) and 2011 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data using a geographic information system (GIS). The relationships between 1) tornado intensity and topographic elevation or surface roughness and 2) changes in tornado intensity and changes in topographic elevation or surface roughness are investigated qualitatively, and statistical relationships are quantified and analyzed using a bootstrap permutation method for individual case studies and all cases collectively. Results suggest that there are statistically significant relationships for individual cases, but the relationships defy generalization and are different on a case-by-case basis, which may imply that they are coincidental, indicating a null correlation.