Prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) of Komatsu excavator under reliability analysis in the Weibull-frailty model

Abstract

It is an essential task to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery in the mining sector aimed at ensuring the production and the customer’s satisfaction. In this study, a conceptual framework was used to determine the RUL under the reliability analysis in a frailty model. The proposed framework was implemented on a Komatsu PC-1250 excavator from the Sungun copper mine. Also, the Weibull-frailty model was selected to describe the failure behavior and compare it with the classical-exponential model. The frailty model was also used to evaluate the impact of unobserved environmental conditions on the RUL values. Both applied models were fitted to the obtained data from 80 operational hours of the Komatsu PC-1250 excavator. Plotting the results from the reliability analysis of two models demonstrated that the mine system with the frailty model performs better than the classical model before reaching the reliability of 80%. Besides, the frailty model shows a coherent with the operational time of the excavator, while the classical model demonstrates a sinusoid variation. The obtained results may be used for the development of maintenance, preventive repairs planning, and the spare parts replacement intervals.