Why LNG Can Be a First Step in East Asia’s Energy Transition to a Low Carbon Economy: Evaluation of Challenges Using Game Theory

Abstract

As countries scramble for cleaner energy production and to meet carbon reduction targets, natural gas seems to become an increasingly attractive option with liquified natural gas (LNG) as a popular transportation choice. In this paper, we first conduct a literature review and discuss the various factors affecting the global natural gas market, its recent history, current state, and future. Then we look at the possibility of East Asia becoming an alternative market to Europe for Russian LNG. We also bring in the US both as a political force that employs economic sanctions and as a potential LNG supplier. As a case study, we define a 3-player game between Russia, The United States, and Japan which results in relative market stability. In the case of sanctions against Russia, we conclude that it will lose its foothold in the Japanese market in the long term. Finally, we discuss the potential of LNG trading as the first step for East Asia’s energy transition to a low-carbon economy.