Integrating small mammal personality and population abundance into forest regeneration predictions for a managed, mixed species forest in Maine, USA

Abstract

Understanding forest regeneration is critical for predicting the future of forests, but most forest growth models overlook the animals responsible for driving regeneration dynamics. Scatter-hoarding small mammals are critical for the regeneration of many keystone plant species, and their personality influences their role in the seed dispersal process. Here, we take a first step toward integrating small mammal populations and personalities into forest regeneration predictions, building a modeling framework with empirical data where possible and identifying knowledge gaps. Our model predicts the number of cached eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) seeds under different personality and abundance scenarios for a deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) population, parameterized with data from an eight-year field study conducted in Maine (USA). We demonstrate that white pine basal area growth is influenced by the personality distribution and abundance of a mouse population and specific forest management treatments. We recommend future research focusing on the knowledge gaps we identified and emphasize that our methods lay the groundwork for the collection and implementation of future empirical data needed for more robust forest growth models. Overall, due to the consequences of shifting personality distributions on white pine regeneration, we urge the conservation of behavioral diversity for maintaining healthy ecosystems.