Macroeconomic effects of COVID-19: A mid-term review*

Abstract

This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of approximately 6.5% in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4% of the pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is, however, a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High-frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insight into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies for combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.