The accuracy of international and national fetal growth charts in detecting small-for-gestational-age infants using the Lambda-Mu-Sigma method

Abstract

Objective: To construct a national fetal growth chart using retrospective data and compared its diagnostic accuracy in predicting SGA at birth with existing international growth charts. Method: This is a retrospective study where datasets from May 2011 to Apr 2020 were extracted to construct the fetal growth chart using the Lambda-Mu-Sigma method. SGA is defined as birth weight <10th centile. The local growth chart's diagnostic accuracy in detecting SGA at birth was evaluated using datasets from May 2020 to Apr 2021 and was compared with the WHO, Hadlock, and INTERGROWTH-21st charts. Balanced accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were reported. Results: A total of 68,897 scans were collected and five biometric growth charts were constructed. Our national growth chart achieved an accuracy of 69% and a sensitivity of 42% in identifying SGA at birth. The WHO chart showed similar diagnostic performance as our national growth chart, followed by the Hadlock (67% accuracy and 38% sensitivity) and INTERGROWTH-21st (57% accuracy and 19% sensitivity). The specificities for all charts were 95–96%. All growth charts showed higher accuracy in the third trimester, with an improvement of 8–16%, as compared to that in the second trimester. Conclusion: Using the Hadlock and INTERGROWTH-21st chart in the Malaysian population may results in misdiagnose of SGA. Our population local chart has slightly higher accuracy in predicting preterm SGA in the second trimester which can enable earlier intervention for babies who are detected as SGA. All growth charts' diagnostic accuracies were poor in the second trimester, suggesting the need of improvising alternative techniques for early detection of SGA to improve fetus outcomes.