A comprehensive drought monitoring method integrating multi-source data

Abstract

Droughts are the most expensive natural disasters on the planet. As a result of climate change and human activities, the incidence and impact of drought have grown in China. Timely and effective monitoring of drought is crucial for water resource management, drought mitigation, and national food security. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive drought index (YCDI) suitable for the Yellow River Basin using principal component analysis and the entropy weight-AHP method, which integrated a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), vegetation condition index (VCI), and standardized water storage index (SWSI). SWSI is calculated by the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA), which can more comprehensively reflect the impact of surface water resources on drought (as compared with soil moisture-based indexes). The study results showed that: (1) compared with single drought index, YCDI has stronger ability to monitor drought process. In terms of time scale and drought degree, the monitoring results based on YCDI were similar with data presented in the China Flood and Drought Bulletin and Meteorological Drought Yearbook, reaching ~87% and ~69%, respectively. The correlation between drought intensity and crop harvest area was 0.56. (2) By the combined analysis of the Mann-Kendall test and Moving T test, it was found that the abrupt change of YCDI index at the time of 2009, mainly due to the precipitation in 2009 reached the lowest value in the past 30 years in northern China and extreme high temperature weather. (3) The YCDI of Henan and Shandong provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the basin decreased more significantly, with the maximum value reaching 0.097/yr, while the index in the upper reaches showed an increasing trend with the maximum rate of 0.096/yr. (4) The frequency of mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought in the Yellow River basin during the study period was 15.84%, 12.52%, 4.03% and 0.97%, respectively. Among them, the highest frequency of droughts occurred in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and central Shaanxi provinces. Drought causation in the Yellow River basin is more influenced by human activities than climate change in the middle and lower reaches, while climate change is the main factor in the upper reaches. Overall, YCDI is a reliable indicator for monitoring the spatial and temporal evolution of drought in the Yellow River basin, and it can be used for monitoring soil moisture changes and vegetation dynamics, which can provide scientific guidance for regional drought governance.