Assessing the Effects of Local Crime Hotspots on Parole Recidivism

Abstract

This study tests hypotheses based on crime pattern theory: (a) There are associations between parolee recidivism and property, drug, and violent crime hotspots within 1,200 feet of their residences; (b) these effects are uneven, with smaller associations found closer to the parolee residence. Survival analysis was conducted on arrests for 1,632 parolees released from New Jersey prisons, between July 2007 and June 2009, and who spent time in Newark. The research provides some qualified support for an association between local crime hotspots and parolee recidivism, though significant associations were sparse. Associations close to home were entirely absent.