Global change: population, land-use and vegetation in the Mediterranean Basin by the mid-21st century

Abstract

The likelihood of a temperature increase induced by the release of CO2 and other warming gases in the atmosphere is discussed. The possible consequences of a temperature rise of 3°C on vegetation, crops and land-use are analysed. They would be seriously detrimental to the South due to increased aridity, but the consequences of a possible climatic change would however be trivial by comparison with the impact of the ongoing population growth. The present 285 million people in the 14 Afro-Asian Mediterranean countries considered in the study could reach, depending on different growth scenarios and projections, a low of 0.8 billion and a high of 1.95 billion by the year 2050. The impact of such a population explosion would be similar to that arising from geological considerations, further worsened by increasing aridity from rising evapo-transpiration. -from Author