Dynamic Forecasting and Operation Mechanism of Reservoir Considering Multi-Time Scales

Abstract

This paper proposes a feedback, rolling and adaptive operation decision-making mechanism for coupling and nesting of time scales. It is aimed at the change of time scale and the dynamics in the operation process, considering the relationship between operation period and multi-time scales. The key point is to integrate forecasting and operation in order to adapt to the multi-time scales dynamic change in the operation process. The operation process is divided into different time scales; forecasting and operation model method libraries are constructed, and the progressive updating and nesting mechanism are used to realize the process dynamic operation, according to the regulation period or operation period of the reservoir. Taking the Miyun Reservoir in Beijing, China as the research object, the operation mechanism is integrated into the operation process, and the complex forecasting operation and control mechanism are integrated, based on the integrated platform and using modern information technology. The forecasting and operation method uses classic different models, which can be selected based on different goals. The forecasting inflow is used as input, and the output is the water distribution plan, more importantly, the mechanism in the operation process is the key point. This is a rolling modification of the inflow process in the next stage, and the operation plan also changes accordingly. The feasibility, effectiveness, rationality and flexibility of the reservoir dynamic and adaptive operation are verified, so that the reservoir operation is dynamically changing and adapting to the changing demand. The proposed operation mechanism has scientific value and guiding significance to improve the reservoir operation theory, and it provides decision support for the actual reservoir operation and operation business.