Urban land use scenarios for a tourist region in Europe: Applying the MOLAND model to Algarve, Portugal

Abstract

This paper's objective is to present a range of future urban land use change scenarios and the implications of capacity-building/urban development and economy demand for the European tourist region. Using the MOLAND model, four future urban growth scenarios were created based on data and storylines for the Algarve region, Portugal case study. In all scenarios, urban growth arises from the increase in population particularly, due to tourism and economic change. However, the spatial patterns are different due to alternative assumptions about urban development processes/purposes. The results of modelling are successfully illustrated in a spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for year 2020. They provide a very useful input for starting discussions on the "behaviour" and future urban development planning of European's tourist areas. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.