Numerical simulation of the 1994 tsunami in Calapan, Mindoro, Philippines using Delft3D

Abstract

A tsunami is a long-period sea wave caused by an earthquake, submarine landslide, or other disturbance such as meteor impact. A 7.1-magnitude earthquake on November 15, 1994 caused a tsunami that hit the coastal areas of Batangas, Quezon, and Mindoro in the Philippines, resulting to 78 deaths. In this study, the 1994 Mindoro tsunami was numerically simulated by modelling of the initial water surface generated by the ground rupture and propagating the tsunami wave towards the coastal areas. Based on the simulations, the generated tsunami wave has a height not exceeding 1.5 m above mean sea level and caused water runup heights in the coast of Calapan, Mindoro reaching 2.6 m. The results of the numerical simulation locally agree with the post-disaster measurements of Imamura et al. (1995) for the coast of Calapan, Mindoro, but the maximum runup levels recorded in the nearby Baco Islands were not obtained with acceptable accuracy. Further calibration of the numerical model is underway to improve the performance of the model.