The sound of silence: measuring self-censorship in a backsliding democracy

Abstract

This report examines why citizens go silent during democratic backsliding by analyzing original survey data from Indonesia during a period of heightened digital repression. To understand this, we focus on strategic silence—an intentional, calculated withholding of political views to evade repercussions distinct from political disengagement and preference falsification. We measure this using a Self-Censorship Index derived from differential non-response to sensitive vs. non-sensitive survey items. Our findings show that the chilling effect is most strongly associated with fear of selective law enforcement rather than the threat of state surveillance. While having greater resources is commonly assumed to reduce self-censorship, we conversely identify a clear divergence between cognitive and material resources. Education and exposure to democracy are strongly associated with bolder political expression, while economic security increases the possibility of strategic silence. We term this dynamic protective withdrawal, a form of selective non-participation in which economically secured citizens avoid critical political expression to shield their socio-economic positions from selective law enforcement. Ultimately, these dynamics suggest that before democratic institutions are completely dismantled, the regime effectively narrows civic space by raising the perceived cost of dissent. Such emerging autocratising strategy forces the voluntary withdrawal of groups most capable of contesting authoritarian drift.