Urban development modeling in Al Diwaniyah province of Iraq using RS-GIS

Abstract

The rapid growth of the population and the consequent increase in migration to the cities during the past decades have caused the expansion of many urban areas. In this study, the growth and development of the urban areas of Al-Diwaniyeh during the recent decades using three categories: 1. urban limits layer extracted from land use maps during the period, 2. population density layers and 3. Degree of urbanization in the period 1975 to 2015 It was investigated, monitored and modeled. Modeling and forecasting for the future was done using layers of population density and degree of urbanization. The population density map for 2025 was implemented based on population changes in the last two decades using the multilayer artificial neural network method. While the prediction of the degree of urbanization was operationalized by creating and applying a multi-layer neural network model for 2030. The results of the study showed that the general trend of the expansion of Al-Diwaniye city limits during the period of 1975 to 205 was increasing. The degree of urbanization in Al Diwaniyah has been increasing since 1975. After 1975, the initial cores of the dense areas were formed, and gradually, in the following periods, the expansion of the urban areas of Al-Diwaniyeh was observed around the cores. The class of rural areas has shown an upward trend with a more uniform slope compared to other classes of the degree of urbanization. While after 1990, high density and low density classes with close areas have also gone through an upward trend. The rate of population density and, accordingly, the rate of population in Al-Diwaniye has been increasing between 1975 and 2015. The trend of maximum population changes has been downward; therefore, it can be claimed that the initial dense cores of the urban population of Al-Diwaniyeh have moved to the surrounding areas. In the estimated degree of urbanization in 2030, the class with high density has faced a decrease in area compared to the previous period. In general, the area of ​​built-up areas in 2030 will increase compared to previous periods, but this will be achieved with a slower acceleration and slope compared to previous periods.