Evaluation of the ABC decision rule by the operating model approach

Abstract

The ABC Decision Rule 2-2 was examined by simulation using the operating model. The operating model was based on the production model with stochastic variation in population and observation error of abundance index. Results indicated that Rule 2-2 provided a low yield and high risk of management failure. Alternative decision rules which used the trend and level of abundance index were also examined and provided a higher yield and lower risk of failure than Rule 2-2. Urgently needed is development of management decision rules that are robust to key uncertainties by simulation using the operating model which adequately represents actual stock.