Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of childhood hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) analyzed by DLNMs-based time series approach

Abstract

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become an emerging infectious disease in China in the last decade. There has been evidence that meteorological factors can influence the HFMD incidence, and understanding the mechanisms can help prevent and control HFMD. Methods: HFMD incidence data and meteorological data in Minhang District, Shanghai were obtained for the period between 2009 and 2015. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were utilized to investigate the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence after adjusting for potential confounders of long time trend, weekdays and holidays. Results: There was a non-linear relationship between temperature and HFMD incidence, the RR of 5th percentile compared to the median is 0.836 (95% CI: 0.671-1.042) and the RR of 95th percentile is 2.225 (95% CI: 1.774-2.792), and the effect of temperature varied across age groups. HFMD incidence increased with increasing average relative humidity (%) (RR=1.009, 95% CI: 1.005-1.015) and wind speed (m/s) (RR=1.197, 95% CI: 1.118-1.282), and with decreasing daily rainfall (mm) (RR=0.992, 95% CI: 0.987-0.997) and sunshine hours (h) (RR=0.966, 95% CI: 0.951-0.980). Conclusions: There were significant relationships between meteorological factors and childhood HFMD incidence in Minhang District, Shanghai. This information can help local health agencies develop strategies for the control and prevention of HFMD under specific climatic conditions.