The potential of regression factor analysis to predict highway traffic in conditions of high tourism seasonality

Abstract

The impact of traffic flows on the economy, society, and the environment is obvious and complex. This paper presents a linear regression model created using the factors influencing traffic from a case study of a regional highway in the turbulent period from 2019 to 2024. The model was tested on a highway that is subject to distinct seasonal fluctuations on an important transport connection between Central Europe and tourist destinations in the northern Mediterranean. The model was tested to predict traffic intensity and flows and to give reliable inputs for the management of the highway’s economic, technical, safety, and ecological aspects for future development. The result of the model was checked and found to be reliable, which opens up the possibility of creating similar models for other strategic traffic routes in Central Europe, in order to manage traffic flows in a measurable, responsible, and sustainable way.