Behavior of Palmer mango prices to the producer of Vale do Submédio São Francisco

Abstract

This paper, has as main objective, to verify the components of trend, seasonality and volatility, of the price of the mango paid to the producer of Vale do Submédio São Francisco. In addition, a study is also carried out to forecast future mango prices for the next 18 weeks over the study period. For this purpose, data obtained from the CEPEA / USP website, corresponding to the period from the first week of 2012 to the thirty-fourth week of 2020, were used. The results point to a positive trend and seasonality with periods of 12 and 28 weeks. Palmer mango prices show conditional volatility, with more pronounced fluctuations from the year 2016 onwards. The series was modeled by a SARIMA (1.1.0) x (0.0.1) 52 for the price forecast. According to the absolute mean error and the average percentage error, the model has a good fit.