Depopulation and associated challenges for US cities by 2100

Abstract

For cities, having a declining population usually means socioeconomic and infrastructure challenges to accommodate the remaining population. Using population projections, we found that, by 2100, close to half of the nearly 30,000 cities in the United States will face some sort of population decline, representing 12–23% of the population of these 30,000 cities and 27–44% of the populated area. The implications of this massive decline in population will bring unprecedented challenges, possibly leading to disruptions in basic services like transit, clean water, electricity and internet access. Simultaneously, increasing population trends in resource-intensive suburban and periurban cities will probably take away access to much needed resources in depopulating areas, further exacerbating their challenges. Although immigration could play a vital role, resource distribution challenges will persist unless a paradigm shift happens away from growth-based planning alone. This Study identifies current population trends for US cities based on population projection data up to 2100, given various climate change scenarios. These population trends vary regionally and by degree of urbanization, income level, vehicle ownership and immigration.