Myth and reality of a global crisis for agricultural pollination

Abstract

Mounting evidence shows that pollinators are declining as a result of widespread environmental degradation. This loss raises concerns that a global pollination crisis could threaten the human food supply by decreasing crop yield and even promote famine under a hypothetical scenario of total pollinator extinction. This catastrophic possibility has prompted intense interest from scientists, politicians and the general public. However, three lines of evidence do not support such an apocalyptic scenario. First, even though the abundance and diversity of wild pollinators are declining worldwide, the global population of managed honey-bee hives has increased by ~80% since the early 1960s. Second, agricultural production would decrease by <10% in the total absence of bees because relatively few crops are completely pollinator dependent. Lastly, despite widespread pollination deficits, current evidence is inconsistent with deceleration in yield growth with increasing pollinator dependence at a global scale, probably due to improvements in crop breeding and external agricultural subsidies. Overall, this evidence refutes simplistic claims of human starvation caused by a hypothetical total pollinator extinction. Nevertheless, pollination problems may loom. Although pollinators are responsible for a minor fraction of global agriculture production, this fraction has increased ~600% since 1961, greatly outpacing human population growth and the growth of the global population of managed honey bees. This large production increase is explained to a considerable extent by the rapid expansion of pollinatordependent monocultures at the expense of natural and diverse agricultural habitats. By driving pollinator decline, this land-use transformation could worsen pollination deficits and promote further crop expansion given sustained market demands. Therefore, although the human food supply is not currently subject to a global pollination crisis, a spiralling positive-feedback between the impacts of agriculture expansion and pollinator decline on crop yield could accelerate precipitous biodiversity loss by promoting further habitat destruction and homogenization.